As we expected, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs excluding China, which caused the S&P 500 to jump almost 10% in a single day. However, uncertainty around tariffs remains, and fears of a trade war with China. Unless supported by positive news, markets are likely to drift lower. Unexpectedly, US treasuries saw a significant sell off at a time when investors usually look to the asset class as a safe haven. Given the size of this market and its systemic implications, adverse developments here could be very problematic.