Author name: admin

The conflict in the Middle East is overshadowing other market news for now. This ‘risk-off’ sentiment is likely to continue until one of two things happen. Either the conflict comes to a close, one way or another. Or it continues to simmer for an extended period, and the market adjusts and starts making better informed […]

The sentiment in markets is one of fear and uncertainty. On the one hand is the worry that the Israel-Hamas war will metastasize into a wider conflict. On the other is the stated commitment by the FOMC to continue with a high interest rate regime despite the relentless rise in long-term yields, and the impact

Market sentiment has become extremely bearish. The S&P 500 has broken through support at 200 DMA, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is in “Extreme Fear” territory and strong earnings report by most of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks have been glossed over. Uncertainty around the direction of the conflict in Israel will likely keep markets nervous

Markets had a rellef rally last week. As we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the technicals were oversold, and looking for a positive trigger to go up. That trigger came this week with the FOMC decision to hold interest rates at current levels, as well as softish data on jobs and inflation. If the

As expected, markets focused on economic data to decide on next steps.  Both GDP and employment data suggest that the economy is starting to cool, which should give the Federal Reserve support to pause its hiking cycle.

Several important events took place last week. Nvidia beat already elevated expectations by a wide margin for the second time in a row. The Federal Reserve reiterated in no uncertain terms its intention to keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’. And the BRICS group added six new countries and now represents almost a third of

Contrary to expectations at the start of the year, US stock markets have delivered strong returns in 2023. Investor sentiment has also swung from extreme pessimism in October 2022, when markets had corrected sharply, to extreme bullishness in July 2023.  Headline economic data supports this change in mood. GDP data reflects an economy that has

The downgrade by Fitch of the sovereign risk rating of the United States to AA+, the second time this has happened, has put a lid on the market’s risk appetite. We believe this could be the correcting trigger that we mentioned in our previous newsletter, and is likely to be another good opportunity to add

Mood in the markets has shifted to extreme optimism, as the dominant narrative is that the economy has managed to control inflation without going through a recession. Corporate earnings have also been better than feared. We feel it’s time to become even more selective..

US stock market indices have belied widely held expectations and gone up substantially in the first half of 2023. The macroeconomic data, however, is telling a different story. Will the rally continue? It’s possible in the near term as bullish momentum continues. But it’s difficult to see it go on for much longer given the