Category: Insights

Policy uncertainty, soft economic data & cracks in the US AI dominance narrative have caused US stocks to take a breather. Europe & Chinese markets have seen appreciation owing to undervaluation and idiosyncratic factors even though economic growth remains weak. The India story remains intact even though markets have seen a significant correction from overvalued levels.

We are still in the early days of 2025, and year-end projections are already at risk.

The narrative around US dominance over the future of AI was challenged by a hitherto little-known company from China. The fires in California were a reminder that even the most affluent parts of the world are not immune to environmental hazards. And the drama around the mass deportation of illegal immigrants to Colombia may be a foretaste of more drama ahead.

All in all, we maintain our view that 2025 will be a year of heightened volatility.

As we step into a new year, we take this opportunity to share the first part of our special two-part edition on market perspectives. This edition highlights Wall Street’s outlook for 2025, offering an overview of key trends and insights shaping market sentiment.

Later this month, we will follow up with the second half, where we will share our detailed view on the markets and how we plan to navigate the opportunities and challenges in alignment with our clients’ goals.

Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful, harmonious, and successful 2025.

US stocks continue to deliver very strong performance, recently buoyed by data indicating a strong economy as well as optimism around initiatives announced by the incoming administration in the US. Sentiment is strongly and almost unanimously bullish. We take a somewhat more nuanced view and advise investors to remain diversified and focused on quality.

US stock markets took a breather after a 6-week ascent, shifting focus on to the upcoming election and its potential impact on the economy. In China, a slew of stimulus measures by the authorities is giving rise to cautious optimism, but challenges remain.

The Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from solely addressing inflation to balancing inflation control with supporting employment. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, held steady in July at 2.5%, while the core gauge was 2.6%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation has been largely tamed through high interest rates, and the labor market is no longer overheated, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The Fed now aims for a “soft landing,” reducing inflation without triggering a recession, as job growth slows but remains positive.

The hike in interest rates by the Bank of Japan led to a sharp correction in USDJPY and an unwinding of the ‘carry’ trade. While this was expected, the effect was magnified by the release of softer than expected employment data in the US, which led to some panic selling. We believe some further volatility is likely before the dust settles.

Politics take centre stage in the markets. Meanwhile, the US economy is experiencing slowing growth, rising unemployment, and cooling inflation, suggesting imminent interest rate cuts. In China, efforts to stimulate local demand are falling short, and the banking sector is under significant stress.

US equities surge as S&P 500 hits 25 all-time highs this year, driven by tech stocks and semiconductor outperformance. Despite slower GDP growth, concerns arise over consumer fatigue and rising default rates, while labor market strength shows signs of softening. Gold’s prominence grows amid central bank purchases and other major economies initiate interest rate cuts. Please find enclosed our newsletter for June 2024.

After a robust 2023, the US economy is showing signs of stabilizing, with modest growth reported in the first quarter of 2024, indicating a possible tapering of economic expansion. Inflation remains persistent, prompting cautious monetary policy from the Fed.