Category: Newsletter

The S&P 500 did not experience a Santa Claus rally this year. Historically, without the rally, the index’s January return has been 5% average full-year return, based on data since 1950. Oil prices & Chinese stock markets have been the biggest movers year to date as Trump tariffs and the Chinese response take centre stage.

US stock indices paused this week as markets focused their attention towards the Fed’s year-end meeting. The week saw important data releases in CPI, PPI and jobless claims. Specific stocks like Broadcom, Adobe & Tesla saw sizeable movement. Oil prices rose amid potential US sanctions on Russian oil and hopes for stronger energy demand.

A tech rally boosted major US indices to new highs in a week that was dominated by political news. The November jobs data was not too distant from expectations, reinforcing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Oil prices fell amid concerns over weak demand. Indian and Japanese stocks saw gains, driven by shifts in foreign investor sentiment and comments from the Bank of Japan.

US stocks initially surged following Trump’s election victory, but have since retreated, giving up most of those gains. The market’s optimism about pro-business policies has been tempered by concerns over potential inflationary effects and slower-than-expected interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting a cautious approach to rate reductions, coupled with strong retail sales data, have led investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy easing.

U.S. stock markets experienced their best week in a year, with the S&P 500 touching 6,000 following a Republican sweep in the elections which also caused reverberations in capital markets across the globe. The Fed continued its easing cycle. On the other side of the world, Beijing announced their much-awaited fiscal spending plan to revive a subdued economy.

US October jobs data came in well below expectations, but analysts attributed the slowdown to one-off events. Market remains convinced about a 25 bp cut by the FOMC on November 7th, while concerns about higher inflation and debt pushed 10y US Treasury yields higher. September corporate earnings were generally positive, but market reaction was mixed due to concerns around high AI spends.

Dear Mr. Investor,
 
US stocks continued to hit new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing above 5,800 for the first time. Consumer prices for September came in hotter than expected, and the market is now pricing in an 89% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in November. In corporate news, Tesla’s stock fell over 8% amid disappointment regarding its robotaxi rollout, while JPMorgan Chase reported strong net interest income, investment and trading revenue.
 
Please find enclosed our weekly newsletter.
 
Regards,
Asas Capital Team

In September, US nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leading to expectations of a more gradual cut in interest rates by the Fed. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions spiked as Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, heightening fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Global markets, including European, Indian, and Gulf stock exchanges, were impacted by rising oil prices and economic uncertainty

Stocks ended the week on a high, boosted by a favorable inflation report and strong economic growth data. Tech stocks saw mixed results as Nvidia faced some setbacks, while Micron and Intel rose on positive earnings and funding news. Beijing introduced a plethora of measures to stimulate its economy, lifting mainland stocks. Oil prices dropped following Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase output.

Following a 50 basis point rate cut, the S&P 500 hit record highs, and Gold rallied to all-time highs.

At current levels, the index’s valuation of 21 times forward earnings is significantly higher than the long-term average. However, near-term momentum is bullish for markets