Category: Newsletter

Markets fluctuated amid U.S. inflation data and the ongoing tariff policy uncertainty. Bonds saw heightened intraweek volatility. Chinese stocks rose on AI optimism and an Alibaba-Apple partnership, contrasting with India’s slump from foreign outflows and valuation concerns.

Last week saw several US economic data releases and earnings releases from major players. However, these events were overshadowed by Trump’s announcements which ranged from tariffs on 3 of their biggest import origin countries, a last-minute course reversal on 2 of them, suggesting a takeover of the Gaza strip, and ending the week with an indication of more upcoming tariff announcements. India announced a rate cut after almost 5 years, gold hit record highs and oil fell as markets fear receding global trade.

US stocks bounced back after the shock from the DeepSeek news early in the week, driven by strong Q4 earnings, particularly from tech stocks. Three of the world’s leading Central Banks announced interest rate decisions. In India, the government announced its budget for the next year, which has several growth-oriented initiatives and was received well by markets.

However, most of the news flow from financial markets over the near future is likely to be drowned out by the uncertainty around the imposition of tariffs announced by the Trump administration and the consequences of the same.

Major U.S. stock indexes rallied for the week, driven by optimism ahead of Trump’s inauguration on Monday. Investors were encouraged by strong bank earnings and positive economic data, resuscitating bets on interest rate cuts in the months ahead. The 10-year Treasury yield settled around 4.6%, while Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, boosting crypto-related stocks.

A surprisingly strong US jobs report fed into fears of sustained inflation, sending Treasury yields soaring and stock prices plummeting. Interest rate cut expectations have been pared to one or two cuts in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile,  Chinese markets are bracing for the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration and weak domestic data.

The S&P 500 did not experience a Santa Claus rally this year. Historically, without the rally, the index’s January return has been 5% average full-year return, based on data since 1950. Oil prices & Chinese stock markets have been the biggest movers year to date as Trump tariffs and the Chinese response take centre stage.

US stock indices paused this week as markets focused their attention towards the Fed’s year-end meeting. The week saw important data releases in CPI, PPI and jobless claims. Specific stocks like Broadcom, Adobe & Tesla saw sizeable movement. Oil prices rose amid potential US sanctions on Russian oil and hopes for stronger energy demand.

A tech rally boosted major US indices to new highs in a week that was dominated by political news. The November jobs data was not too distant from expectations, reinforcing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Oil prices fell amid concerns over weak demand. Indian and Japanese stocks saw gains, driven by shifts in foreign investor sentiment and comments from the Bank of Japan.

US stocks initially surged following Trump’s election victory, but have since retreated, giving up most of those gains. The market’s optimism about pro-business policies has been tempered by concerns over potential inflationary effects and slower-than-expected interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting a cautious approach to rate reductions, coupled with strong retail sales data, have led investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy easing.

U.S. stock markets experienced their best week in a year, with the S&P 500 touching 6,000 following a Republican sweep in the elections which also caused reverberations in capital markets across the globe. The Fed continued its easing cycle. On the other side of the world, Beijing announced their much-awaited fiscal spending plan to revive a subdued economy.