Category: Newsletter

Please find enclosed our newsletter for the week ended 29th March.

Please find enclosed our newsletter for the week ended 22nd March.

Please find enclosed our newsletter for the week ended 15th March.

Despite data suggesting lukewarm progress towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, US financial markets are still held up strongly by the prospects for AI. Both companies that will provide critical inputs for the industry, as well as those expected to benefit from it the most, are being chased by investors.

How long before this levels off is not easy to forecast, but difficult to deny that valuations are looking excessively optimistic.

Last week markets were all about the spectacular performance of Nvidia which lifted the entire sector, US markets and even the global markets. Strong data from the US suggests that interest rate cuts may be pushed somewhat into the future than what the market has currently priced in.

Markets retained their bullish tone through most of the week. Strong economic data, suggesting stronger than expected economic growth without inflation spiking, seems to have shifted attention away from interest rates for now.

The upcoming week is a busy one, with the January FOMC meeting due midweek and several mega-caps reporting earnings, and should help to set the tone for the near term.

The S&P finally hit all-time highs last week, buoyed mainly by renewed optimism around AI. However, valuations look ever more stretched, and some near-term consolidation appears possible.

The Santa Claus rally at the end of December did not materialize. Historically, in such situations the performance over the first five days of January has been a very good indicator for the year’s performance. Unfortunately for stock market bulls, the S&P 500 delivered a negative return. Will history repeat itself?