Month: August 2026

Markets confront a Treasury–Fed tug-of-war as Scott Bessent’s aggressive yield-capping fades and Chair Warsh’s independent stance dominates ahead of Jackson Hole. Divergent signals from resilient PMIs to Walmart’s soft guidance, plus Iran-driven oil and gold strength, set a cautious tone into Nvidia’s Q2 results and Warsh’s Friday keynote.

Markets digest cooling inflation and softer spending as the Fed’s September hike odds recede, while Nvidia’s $500bn AI financing pact with Wall Street giants reinforces tech leadership. Gold and oil gain on geopolitical premiums, even as Treasury yields decline and equities log another weekly advance.

Softer July payrolls and downward revisions eased expectations for a September Fed hike, while moderating wages and lower oil prices supported duration, gold, and rate-sensitive equities. Strong earnings and AI-led semiconductor gains propelled U.S. stocks to records, reinforcing a constructive risk backdrop ahead of CPI; sticky inflation remains a threat.

Oil’s spike proved short-lived as Trump signaled a truce with Iran over the Hormuz corridor, sending Brent tumbling over 6% from its highs, but the bigger story was a genuinely divided Fed holding rates under new Chair Warsh while yields surged. Equities still gained on strong earnings, though AI-era winners and losers split sharply: Microsoft and Amazon soared while Meta and Apple stumbled.