Insights

US stock market indices have belied widely held expectations and gone up substantially in the first half of 2023. The macroeconomic data, however, is telling a different story. Will the rally continue? It’s possible in the near term as bullish momentum continues. But it’s difficult to see it go on for much longer given the […]

Investors have turned extremely bullish after latest inflation data showed headline CPI dropping to 3%. Our analysis suggests markets are pricing a near perfect environment, which increases their vulnerability to negative developments in the months ahead.

A few interesting things happened in the U.S. stock markets last week.The S&P 500 closed more than 20% off its October lows on June 8th. At 248 trading days, the recent run back to a bull market was the longest bear run for the S&P since 1948. In doing so, it reached the 4,300 level

On June 3rd, President Joe Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 to raise the country’s debt ceiling. As expected, after much political brinksmanship and at the last minute (in this case, with 2 days to go for the ‘x date’) Also as expected, with minimal cuts in spending. In a nutshell, it suspended

Stocks rallied on rising optimism that D.C. lawmakers will reach a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which closed at its highest level since August. For the full week, the Dow Jones index lost 1%, but the S&P 500 edged up 0.3% and the Nasdaq jumped 2.5% for a

The stock market rally strengthened this past week. The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 hit 2023 highs, with the Nasdaq 100 setting its best levels in more than a year. Market breadth continued to be very narrow, with gains led by AI-infused tech leaders such as Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Service Now (NOW),

Markets remained relatively range-bound last week, with a continuation of the battle between strong big tech and weak cyclical risk-on sectors. On economic data, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 22 thousand to 264 thousand on the week ending May 6th, the most since October 2021, and well above market expectations

Another week, another bank in trouble We have repeatedly alluded in our newsletters to the lag effect of the rapid interest rate hikes set in motion by the U S Federal Reserve in early 2022 and warned that it would take several months before the full effects become clear Since March 2023 almost exactly a

Last week’s release of the March CPI report revealed that inflation remains on its downward path. Headline inflation has dropped materially, falling from 9% last summer to 5% in March, driven in large part by a drop in oil and food prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs and serves as the

The stock market rally took a breather last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 index dipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell 1.1% and the Russell 2000 slumped 2.5%. U.S. labor data came in mixed on April 7th. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 236,000, just below estimates for 240,000 and down from February’s