Category: Newsletter

As we expected, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs excluding China, which caused the S&P 500 to jump almost 10% in a single day. However, uncertainty around tariffs remains, and fears of a trade war with China. Unless supported by positive news, markets are likely to drift lower. Unexpectedly, US treasuries saw a significant sell off at a time when investors usually look to the asset class as a safe haven. Given the size of this market and its systemic implications, adverse developments here could be very problematic.

US markets remain under pressure due to uncertainty around Trump’s actions and its effects on the economy. Investors look forward to “Liberation Day” when US announces its overall strategy on trade and tariffs. Europe and China have a much better run, but face their own risks and challenges. We continue to advise a nimble approach and diversification

The trade war continues to escalate and pressure markets with US indices continuing losses into the 4th week with some respite seen on Friday due to a US government shutdown being averted. US released February inflation data that calmed some nerves and the yellow metal touched the $3,000 level for the first time.

US markets continue to fret amidst uncertainty around actions of the current administration with markets entering correction territory. The job market remains relatively stable however unemployment rate ticked up in February. Europe sees significant fiscal stimulus on the horizon with the incoming German administration announcing ambitious plans. Beijing announced their 2025 GDP growth targets while gold continues to see inflows due to heightened volatility.

US markets closed the week in red after economic data pointed to slowing business activity and further weakening in consumer sentiment. Adding to the gloom was weak guidance shared by Walmart, which is considered a proxy for the health of the US consumer. Musk’s DOGE continued its aggressive firing spree as the US announced plans to slash its defence budget.

The geopolitical situation also remained murky and unsettled in Europe, pointing to a complicated path towards fiscal stimulus.

Markets fluctuated amid U.S. inflation data and the ongoing tariff policy uncertainty. Bonds saw heightened intraweek volatility. Chinese stocks rose on AI optimism and an Alibaba-Apple partnership, contrasting with India’s slump from foreign outflows and valuation concerns.

Last week saw several US economic data releases and earnings releases from major players. However, these events were overshadowed by Trump’s announcements which ranged from tariffs on 3 of their biggest import origin countries, a last-minute course reversal on 2 of them, suggesting a takeover of the Gaza strip, and ending the week with an indication of more upcoming tariff announcements. India announced a rate cut after almost 5 years, gold hit record highs and oil fell as markets fear receding global trade.

US stocks bounced back after the shock from the DeepSeek news early in the week, driven by strong Q4 earnings, particularly from tech stocks. Three of the world’s leading Central Banks announced interest rate decisions. In India, the government announced its budget for the next year, which has several growth-oriented initiatives and was received well by markets.

However, most of the news flow from financial markets over the near future is likely to be drowned out by the uncertainty around the imposition of tariffs announced by the Trump administration and the consequences of the same.

Major U.S. stock indexes rallied for the week, driven by optimism ahead of Trump’s inauguration on Monday. Investors were encouraged by strong bank earnings and positive economic data, resuscitating bets on interest rate cuts in the months ahead. The 10-year Treasury yield settled around 4.6%, while Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, boosting crypto-related stocks.

A surprisingly strong US jobs report fed into fears of sustained inflation, sending Treasury yields soaring and stock prices plummeting. Interest rate cut expectations have been pared to one or two cuts in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile,  Chinese markets are bracing for the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration and weak domestic data.